Who should Muslims trust in Bihar?

Who should Muslims trust in Bihar? Asaduddin Owaisi : If reports are to be believed, Asaduddin Owaisi’s party, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul Muslimeen (AIMIM), will contest about 25 seats in the Muslim-majority Seemanchal region of Purnia, Kishanganj, Araria and Katihar. Muslims constitute over 16% of the population in Bihar and play a decisive role in about 40-50 seats, most of which are in the Seemanchal region. If the past is anything to go by, the AIMIM could once again prove to be a spoiler for the “traditional secular alliance”, like it did in Maharashtra. The “secular alliance” in Bihar comprises Lalu Prasad’s RJD, Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and the Congress.

While the saffron alliance is hoping to consolidate the upper caste vote and wants a larger majoritarian mobilisation, the Janta Parivar-Congress alliance is heavily banking on the Kurmi, Yadav, Mahadalit and Most Backward vote in addition to the consolidation of the Muslim vote. Their learning from the 2014 Lok Sabha elections is quite clear – do not let their traditional vote split at any cost. Last time around, the BJP and its ally Paswan’s LJP bagged 30% and 6% of the popular vote respectively tallying up to a modest 36% . The RJD with 20% vote, JD(U) with its 16% and Congress with its vote share of 9% added up to 45% on paper. But a divided opposition allowed the saffron alliance to gain a major advantage in terms of seats.

In the by-poll to 10 Assembly seats in August 2014, the “secularists” did not repeat their past mistakes and fought unitedly. Fortunes turned dramatically and the saffron alliance that held nine out of the 10 seats was reduced to just four in the by-polls. Its vote share fell from 45.3% in these 10 Assembly segments in April 2014 to 37.3%! The vote share of the RJD, JD(U) and Congress increased from 40.3% in April 2014 to 44.9% in the bye-elections.

In his speech a few days ago in Kishanganj, Bihar, Owaisi quite interestingly trained his guns on Lalu, Nitish and the Congress. Many political pundits argue that he is playing into the hands of the BJP by weaning away some of the crucial Muslim votes like he did in Maharashtra. Others argue that “secular parties” have only paid lip service to the issues confronting Muslims, most glaring of which is debilitating poverty and below par representation of the community in socio-economic and socio-political spaces. For instance the last Muslim to become a Chief Minister in India (barring Jammu & Kashmir ) was way back in the 1980s!

Fielding 24 candidates in Maharashtra during the October 2014 polls, AIMIM had registered about half a million votes, winning two seats, finishing second on three seats and third on eight seats. Six months later, the blow to Congress and NCP was more pronounced- 26 seats in the Aurangabad civic polls were grabbed by AIMIM, emerging as the opposition party in the corporation thereby allowing the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, to retain its hold on the civic body despite poor performance and anti-incumbency.Many in the Muslim community are looking very closely at Bihar as the election that will halt the “Modi Rath”. They see this as the most important opportunity to defeat forces that they believe have created a palpable sense of insecurity especially amongst minorities since May 2014. But if Owaisi repeats or betters his performance of in Bihar, the biggest beneficiary may actually be the BJP as the AIMIM would surely split the vote of the grand alliance. No wonder then, that BJP strategists seem to be relishing this last minute entry of AIMIM into the political fray in Bihar. They are also hoping, as has happened in the past with Owaisi’s firebrand speeches, for an opportunity to polarize the electorate, by allowing the narrative to degenerate into a communal one. It is very likely that AIMIM would head to West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh in 2016 and 2017, both of which have sizeable Muslim votes on offer, where parties like Samajwadi Party can no longer boast of secular credentials after overseeing the riots in Muzaffarnagar in 2013.

AIMIM’s rising political ambitions poses many questions before the “secular” parties. Would secular parties be willing to part a fair share of representation to Muslims in Bihar in terms of ticket distribution? In 2010, there were just 15 Muslim MLAs out of 243. That is less than 10% of the total. At one point the Congress alone could boast of having over 25 Muslim MLAs in Bihar. Would the secular parties be more forthright on addressing issues like employment discrimination, educational backwardness, reservations, poverty, injustice , corruption in Waqfs and many more issues that not only affect Indian Muslims at the level of identity but also at an aspirational one? Will they be willing to empower genuine leaders from the grassroots? Let’s be clear that the lack of commitment by secular forces to address these issues meaningfully has led to the rise of the AIMIM. Secularists should be willing to allow space for a Maulana Azad kind of leader to rise within their ranks or else they would be creating fertile conditions for the rise of the Jinnah variant. The latter, as history has taught us, is an experience that India and its Muslims can just not afford.

AIMIM and Owaisi too stand at a crossroads of sorts. It cannot be anything more than a spoiler unless it modifies its politics, approach and narrative to be a perceptibly more inclusive party. Issues faced by Muslims are largely the same as those faced by most youngsters given that they make up a large part of the below 35 population in the country. And to the credit of the Indian Muslim, he has not always necessarily reposed his or her faith in a “Muslim” party. Rather he or she has always been pre-disposed towards a party that has been fair and considerate towards issues faced by Muslims. Let us not forget, they chose a Nehru over a Jinnah. Frankly, to shape any party on purely religious or communal lines in a vibrant democracy like ours would be quite dangerous and short sighted. No mainstream party can survive at a national level without expanding its base beyond one community. Being a Muslim party may fetch AIMIM a few seats at the cost of other secular parties but will never put it in a position to become a party that can address the larger issues confronting minorities and the nation in a substantial manner.